- With four-time winner Chris Froome and 2018 runner-up Tom Dumoulin out because of crash injuries, this year's Tour de France is the most wide-open edition in years.
- Whereas there are often three or four riders who have a realistic shot at winning, this year there are up to 10.
- But pretenders will be found out: It's an extra-hard course that will favor climbers who thrive at high altitude.
- Individual time trialing is de-emphasized this year, with one relatively short TT and one team time trial.
- The winner will be a strong climber who can hold his own on flatter stages and keep the rubber side down.
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BRUSSELS — The 106th Tour de France starts here Saturday, and it looks as if it could be a vintage year.
It's the most wide-open race in years, with Chris Froome, the four-time winner, and Tom Dumoulin, last year's runner-up, out because of injury. While Geraint Thomas is here to take the start, the defending champ's form is unclear after a race-ending crash two weeks ago and the fact he's not a won a race since last year's Tour.
It's an opportunity for those who normally wouldn't be considered top favorites for cycling's greatest prize, the yellow jersey. And whereas there are usually three or four riders who have a realistic shot at winning, this time there are more like 10 who could win, depending on how generous you like your prognostications.
Sorry, TT fans, but this year's route is about the high mountains — it's the highest-altitude edition in the race's long history. The winner will be a superstrong climber who can hold his own on the flatter stages and keep the rubber side down.
Here, then, are the riders who have the best shot at winning this year's Tour, ranked from least to most likely.
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10. Steven Kruijswijk
Name: Steven Kruijswijk
Nationality: Dutch
Age: 32
Height: 1.78 m./5.10 ft.
Weight: 66 kg./146 lb.
Team: Jumbo-Visma
How can you not root for a rider nicknamed The Coat Hanger?
To casual fans, Kruijswijk may not be the most familiar name in the peloton, but he's been nothing but consistent in weeklong stage races and grand tours over the past several years, finishing in the top five at the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta. He looked set to win the 2016 Giro but infamously crashed out the day before its conclusion, slamming into a snow bank.
Last year the Dutchman was fifth in the Tour and fourth in the Vuelta. This season he's been finishing in the top 10 in smaller but important races in his build-up to the Tour. Yet with all that consistency and flirting with podiums, he's yet to deliver the big result. He's 32 and it's time for Kruijswijk to step up. Winning seems like a stretch, but a podium could be his.
9. Thibaut Pinot
Name: Thibaut Pinot
Nationality: French
Nickname: Pinot Noir
Age: 29
Height: 1.8 m./5.9 ft.
Weight: 63 kg./139 lb.
Team: Groupama-FDJ
How about a French winner for France's national tour? He'd be the first Frenchman to win since 1985.
Pinot is one of France's best three-week riders, having finished as high as third at the Tour, fourth at the Giro, and sixth at the Vuelta. An excellent climber, he should enjoy this year's high-altitude ride around France, and with Froome and Dumoulin out it could be his year to finally snag the win.
But Pinot has been inconsistent, and hasn't finished a Tour since 2015, when he was 16th. Last year he showed his class by winning the prestigious one-day classic Tour of Lombardy, and this year's he's won smaller but important stage races. You can't rule out the Frenchman on home soil. The podium is a potential, if he can pull it all together.
8. Adam Yates
Name: Adam Yates
Nationality: English
Ages: 26
Height: 1.73 m./5.7 ft.
Weight: 58 kg./128 lb.
Team: Mitchelton-Scott
What about twins on the podium? That'd be a first for the Tour.
Cycling's Yates brothers, Adam and Simon, are teammates, each with his own impressive résumé and a shot at a high place in this Tour, with Adam the protected rider this July. Results-wise, Simon edges his brother because of his big victory in the Vuelta last year, eighth place in the Giro this May, and seventh overall at the Tour in 2017, not to mention a slew of top-five finishes in prestigious weeklong races. Adam was fourth at the 2016 Tour and ninth at the 2017 Vuelta. He too has racked up top-10s at big one-week races.
Simon is coming off an eighth-place finish at May's Giro and should be in good position to support Adam in his bid to better his fourth overall in Paris in 2016. Adam hasn't cracked the top 25 in a three-week race since finishing ninth in the 2017 Giro, but he's shown this season that when he's on form he can climb with the best riders. The Yateses are gritty riders who won't shy from racing hard, but a podium will take a lot of work.
7. Vincenzo Nibali
Name: Vincenzo Nibali
Nationality: Italian
Nickname: The Shark
Age: 34
Height: 1.80 m./5.9 ft.
Weight: 65 kg./143 lb.
Team: Bahrain-Merida
Nothing worse than a shark bite.
The three-time grand-tour champion has already raced 45 days this year, including in May's Giro, where he finished second overall. Surprisingly, he has zero wins so far in 2019. Unsurprisingly, he's played down his chances for the general classification this year, saying he'll target stage wins instead. Yet only a fool would write off the cunning Sicilian, who at 34 is one of the most experienced and successful riders in the peloton.
Will the Shark have the legs after completing the Giro? Nibali's hopes would be that others crack around him and he could follow wheels and strike at the right moments. More likely, he'll end up with a stage win in the mountains and roll into Paris somewhere around top five. But a podium is hardly out of the question, if he can stretch his Giro form. History, though, tells us that few riders have been able to fare well in both the Giro and the Tour.
6. Nairo Quintana
Name: Nairo Quintana
Nationality: Colombian
Nickname: Nairoman
Age: 29
Height: 1.67 m./5.5 ft.
Weight: 58 kg./128 lb.
Team: Movistar
Who's afraid of Nairoman?
Six years ago, the Colombian was set to become the next big thing, with many saying he'd win several Tours. And while he has a record most would die for, including two second places at the Tour and overall wins at the Giro and Vuelta, he's struggled to win the biggest race, failing to crack the top 10 in his last two attempts.
If he's got a chance this year, it's that this edition is all about the high-altitude climbing, something Nairoman should be looking forward to. He's got a strong team behind him, and with a second place overall at March's Paris-Nice and ninth at last month's Dauphiné, this could be the 29-year-old's year to cement his class.
5. Romain Bardet
Name: Romain Bardet
Nationality: French
Age: 28
Height: 1.84 m./6 ft.
Weight: 65 kg./143 lb.
Team: AG2R La Mondiale
For the French, Bardet is panache personified.
The tall rider expresses himself by attacking on steep climbs and going for glory. He's called this edition "the most beautiful Tour" since he's been in position to win, and he's eager to hit the high mountains.
Bardet's record at the Tour is impressive; from 2013 to 2018, he finished 15th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th. This year he's on track for a strong showing, with a fifth-place finish at Paris-Nice, ninth at Amstel Gold, and 10th at the Dauphiné. Bardet is one of the best climbers around, and he'll be well supported by his team. With Froome and Dumoulin out, it's his best chance.
4. Geraint Thomas
Name: Geraint Thomas
Nickname: G
Nationality: Welsh
Age: 33
Height: 1.83 m./6 ft.
Weight: 67 kg./147 lb.
Team: Ineos
How heavy lies the crown?
Thomas is high among the picks to win the Tour again this year, but things are more complicated for the Welshman as he heads into his big defense. He'll be under great pressure to repeat, and whereas by this time last year Thomas had won three races, including the "mini Tour de France," the Dauphiné, this year he's won nothing. Has he basked in the glow of his Tour victory too much?
Two weeks ago he crashed out of the Tour of Switzerland, and though he escaped serious injury, he missed four days of hard racing in the mountains, which could have helped confirm his form alongside his rivals, or revealed where he needed fine tuning. And not only will Froome not be around, but Egan Bernal, the 22-year-old phenom, has been officially granted co-leader status after winning the recent Swiss tour. If Bernal is better than Thomas, even by a bit, will Thomas hand over the reins and work for him?
Thomas has one of the strongest teams, which includes star climbers to support him. Unlike some of his rivals, the Welshman did not race the Giro, and, assuming his training has been perfect, he should be fresh to defend his crown.
3. Egan Bernal
Name: Egan Bernal
Nationality: Colombia
Age: 22
Height: 1.75 m./5.8 ft.
Weight: 60 kg./132 lb.
Team: Ineos
The wunderkind everyone's talking about.
Just 22, new kid on the block Bernal is winning big races and coming in hot to his second Tour. He's not only a phenomenal climber but a strong time trialist, who just won the Tour of Switzerland.
The rising Colombian star was supposed to race the Giro in May but injured himself in a training crash, so he refocused on the Tour and is lining up as a co-leader with Thomas, the defending champ. That could present problems if both riders show good legs: Who would be the leader and who the helper? Team boss Dave Brailsford faced such a debacle in the 2012 Tour, when an emerging Chris Froome proved stronger than Bradley Wiggins but who under team orders was forced to costar in a supporting role.
Bernal got 15th in the Tour last year, though he was working for Froome and Thomas. This year the pressure of being a big favorite could wear him out, and his inexperience could see him make a costly mistake or two, whereas Thomas brings deep experience. Whatever happens, he should light up the high mountains.
2. Rigoberto Urán
Name: Rigoberto Urán
Nickname: Rigo
Nationality: Colombian
Age: 32
Height: 1.73 m./5.7 ft.
Weight: 60 kg./132 lb.
Team: EF Education First
There's nobody more chill at the Tour than Rigo.
Urán nearly won the Tour in 2017, giving Froome his closest victory by finishing just 54 seconds down after three weeks of racing. Nobody picked Urán to be among the top finishers that year, let alone runner-up. This year's Tour is all about climbing, and the Colombian climbs with the best. He's solid in the time trial, having lost only 25 seconds to Froome in the longer TT in 2017 after more than 28 minutes of racing. He will have an even deeper team of climbers to support him, and the squad should do well in the TTT.
The tricky part is Urán has raced only 19 days this year and has no individual wins. He did show good form at a recent tune-up race, but compared to his rivals who raced the Giro, Dauphiné, or Swiss tour, he's coming in with unclear form. Still, the consummate pro knows how to prepare, so expect him to be fighting for the win.
1. Jakob Fuglsang
Name: Jakob Fuglsang
Nationality: Danish
Age: 34
Height: 1.81 m./6 ft.
Weight: 65 kg./143 lb.
Team: Astana
Fuglsang — his name means "bird song."
The Dane comes off as low-key, preferring to let his legs do the talking. He's never come that close to winning a three-week race, with his best result seventh in the 2013 Tour. But this July is certain to be the 34-year-old's best shot, with Froome and Dumoulin out and uncertainty over Thomas.
One of the most talented climbers among the GC riders, Fuglsang in April won the sport's hardest one-day race, the hilly Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and a few weeks ago he also won the prestigious Dauphiné, billed by organizers as the "mini Tour de France." Still, he's never won a race over a week long, and the pressure will be the most intense he's ever experienced.
The world's No. 3-ranked rider is enjoying his best season, and he's going to have the full support of his team as he races for yellow. Given this year's climbing-heavy route, Fuglsang could soar above the rest.