One hundred and eighty-four of the best cyclists are set to compete in this year's Tour de France, but only 10 or so riders have a real shot at winning the world's greatest race.
Business gets underway on Saturday in Brest, in northwest France, before the peloton wends its way east, climbs the Alps and Pyrenees, stops in Bordeaux for a penultimate-day time trial, and finishes in Paris for the famous sprint on the Champs-Élysées.
While the 108th edition of the Tour features plenty of climbing and three summit finishes, there will also be two individual time trials, with overall victory favoring the strongest all-around rider.
Here are our favorites to win, ranked from least to most likely.
10. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)
The 24-year-old is one of cycling's top climbers, but he struggles in time trials, so this year's route is less than ideal for the Frenchman. And he lacks a strong team. Still, every season he seems to get better, and he should at least liven up the fight for the top 10. He's certainly France's best shot at a podium in Paris.
9. Miguel Ángel López (Movistar)
The 27-year-old Colombian raced his first Tour only last year, and he didn't waste the opportunity: He won the hardest climbing stage and ran sixth overall. But López is no newbie when it comes to stage racing, having stood on the Giro podium, claimed stages in the Vuelta, and won the Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Suisse. The climber's Achilles' heel is time trialing on flatter roads, and unfortunately for him, there are two of those tests this year. Depending on how things shake out, he may go stage hunting instead of trying to podium in Paris.
8. Jakob Fuglsang (Astana-Premier Tech)
The tall Dane is a strong all-rounder who excels in the mountains and can time-trial. The 36-year-old has never won a grand tour, but he manages to prevail every year in some of the biggest races. He should ride high overall and grab a stage along the way.
7. Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers)
The Ecuadorian star has the strongest team in the race but might find himself held back working for Geraint Thomas in the high mountains. He's an ace climber and good in the time trial. If the 28-year-old gets the opportunity to fight for the win, he's shown that he can deliver. He's already won the Giro, so why not the Tour?
6. Simon Yates (BikeExchange)
The 28-year-old Englishman is one of the best climbers. He's won stages in all three grand tours and claimed the Vuelta a España overall in 2018. In May, he was third at the Giro d'Italia, and before that, he won the Tour of the Alps. Still, not many riders do both the Giro and Tour in the same year, so it wouldn't be surprising if Yates loses steam somewhere on the roads of France. And flat time trials don't suit him. But Yates has been one of the few riders to stay close to Pog and Rog uphill, so he can't be counted out.
5. Richie Porte (Ineos Grenadiers)
The soft-spoken Tasmanian has never won a three-week race, but Porte ran third in last year's Tour. The 36-year-old can still climb and time-trial with the best, or be close to them, and this season he's been flying. While he's often had a bad day or two in grand tours and has had his share of crashes, last year he avoided all that, and it should give him confidence. His stacked team could complicate things, but he could podium again.
4. Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-Nippo)
The 34-year-old Colombian all-rounder should thrive given the hard finishes and time trials. He appears to be coming into peak fighting condition after his TT win and second place overall at the Tour de Suisse. Tactically astute and cool under pressure, he's as experienced as they come. Should his rivals falter, he could equal his second place in 2017 or go one step higher on the podium in Paris.
3. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)
The Welshman won the Tour in 2018 and was runner-up in 2019. This year he finds himself leading the strongest team in the race, and the route suits him with its mix of climbs and pair of time trials. But does the crafty 35-year-old have another Tour victory in him? Will there be a battle for team leadership? Can he beat Pog and Rog?
2. Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma)
The former world-class ski jumper now ranks among the best bike racers. The unassuming 31-year-old got into competitive cycling relatively late, but he's already won big races, including two Vueltas, stages in all three grand tours, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Last year he was one stage from winning his first Tour before fellow Slovenian Tadej Pogačar shocked him and the cycling world to win the penultimate-day time trial and snatch overall victory. Can he deliver this year? If anyone can beat Pog, it's Rog.
1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE-Team Emirates)
This spring, the 2020 Tour de France winner won the hardest one-day race in the world, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, in addition to a slew of other big races. Pogačar is back in France with a stronger team this year. And while winning the Tour is never easy — and he'll face new pressure as defending champ — come Paris he should be in yellow again. Right now the Slovenian sensation is the best cyclist on the planet. To think he's just 22.